Autumn rainfall record

An opportunity to discuss climatic change. Particularly welcome might be contributions from members who have long term records and can offer data for their specific location, whilst qualifying these with respect to changes to their site and local environment.
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Len Wood
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Joined: Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:41 pm
Location: 1 km from coast in Wembury, SW Devon

Autumn rainfall record

Post by Len Wood » Fri Dec 18, 2015 10:17 am

I attach a graph for my autumn (SON) rainfall record in Wembury 1985-2015.
There is a natural yearly variability of 76 mm as calculated from the standard deviation.

autumn 1.jpg
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Len
Wembury, SW Devon coast

83 m amsl

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Paul Swinhoe
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Location: Newcastle-under-Lyme
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Re: Autumn rainfall record

Post by Paul Swinhoe » Sat Dec 19, 2015 7:14 pm

For comparison, here is a rainfall graph for the same period, but for Newcastle-under-Lyme in North Staffordshire. There is again a suggestion of an increase, but the very wet autumn of 2000 distorts things a little. Using a polynomial trend line (order 2) a different picture is suggested. During the same period, autumn temperatures also increased by over 1 degree Celsius.
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autumn_rainfall.jpg
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Len Wood
Posts: 91
Joined: Sat Dec 12, 2015 8:41 pm
Location: 1 km from coast in Wembury, SW Devon

Re: Autumn rainfall record

Post by Len Wood » Sat Dec 19, 2015 11:25 pm

It is certainly true Paul that autumn in year 2000 distorts the trend somewhat.

The linear fit trend line gives a magnitude increase of 44 mm over the period.

The natural yearly variability about the mean (as given by the standard deviation) is 76 mm.
So from a statistical point of view, the trend is not considered to be significant as it is below the variability.
Len
Wembury, SW Devon coast

83 m amsl

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