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Greg Gruner
Posts: 39
Joined: Sun Dec 13, 2015 7:36 pm
Location: Farnborough


Postby Greg Gruner » Wed Oct 11, 2017 8:40 pm

Something strange is going on.
It's 30 years after the Great Storm, and as we approach the anniversary, a hurricane is approaching the British Isles...well, an ex-hurricane, Ophelia.
From the GFS chart, it looks like it will hit Ireland on the 16th - the exact anniversary of the Great Storm. My estimate from the isobars is of sustained winds 65-75 mph, with of course higher gusts. The ECMWF puts Ophelia in much the same position, but even stronger - one can hardly even distinguish the individual isobars. Combined with a fast northerly motion of the storm, I would put the sustained winds from ECMWF at 90-100mph on the Irish coast.
Of course, the charts may be wrong; it may not be strong as that. Or it may head further east and affect much more of the British Isles.
In any case, nature seems to want to mark this anniversary...

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